When the draw for the 2024 FIBA Men’s Olympic Qualifiers Basketball Tournaments came out last fall, Greece, Italy, Latvia, and Spain were expected to be the last four teams to qualify for the 2024 Summer Olympics. Some basketball fans groaned at the predictability of this final stage of pre-Olympic action without any inkling of the events that unfolded months after the draw.
The Dallas Mavericks reached the NBA Finals, bowing to the Boston Celtics (at the score of 1-4). Luka Doncic, the leading Mavericks player, was dealing with a litany of injuries. (The top Slovenian player hardly had a rest since the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup.) A healthy Doncic might not be enough (to stop the Celtics), but the outcome of the Croatia-Slovenia game could’ve been different (if Doncic was able to have a summer’s rest). But there were no excuses from the Slovenian side (after the loss).
"Croatia came out to win, and we just came out to play, not to win. It's not the end of the world, but the way that we lost - I don't like it," Slovenia head coach Aleksandar Sekulic said.
And then there was the Philippine men’s national basketball team (a.k.a. Gilas Pilipinas).
A 11-man Gilas team went to Riga with (head coach) Tim Cone and the rest of the coaching staff. No one placed a bet on the Philippines after a disappointing finish in the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup. (Manila hosted the group stage and then the knockout stage.) Latvia, on the other hand, was the biggest surprise of the 2023 FIBA World Cup, beating the more fancied European teams for a fifth-place finish. Latvia was the heavy favorite on paper, but Gilas have other plans. The upset (win) marked the first time the Philippines beat a European (men’s basketball) team in 64 years. Tim Cone couldn’t hide his delight.
“I’m totally shocked to be sitting here in front of you guys after winning this basketball game,” coach Cone said in his postgame news conference. “This is a big huge step for us to be able to play a Latvia team home, and go at them face-to-face, and come out with a win. It’s amazing.”
Last but not the least, Bahamas advanced to the semifinals of the Olympic Qualifying Tournament - Valencia after notching wins over Finland and Poland. This Caribbean nation hasn't qualified to the FIBA Basketball World Cup. Yet. Will Bahamas beat (home team) Spain? Some fans, and bettors, think it’s a possibility.
The 2024 FIBA Men’s Olympic Qualifying Tournaments is almost halfway, and it’s becoming unpredictable. An exciting time for the fans, but not some bettors. (Italy made Olympic history after their victory over Bahrain. Gli Azzurri won by the widest margin.) Fans must not look forward to July 27, the starting date of the men’s tournament. Let’s take a look on how the rest of remaining days (of the Olympic qualifiers basketball) turn out.
Croatia, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Greece (H), New Zealand, and Slovenia
Some basketball fans looked at the historical performance of Croatia men's basketball team and noticed a pattern (or so they thought). They believe that the Croatians will get that golden ticket to Paris after falling to (eventual winner) Germany in the 2020 Olympic Qualifying Tournament (in Split). (Croatia competed in the 2016 Rio Olympics after failing to advance to the Knockout Round of EuroBasket 2011.
The Croatia men's basketball team missed the 2012 London Olympics.) Croatia and Greece are on opposite sides of the draw. After Croatia thumped Slovenia in their opening game, fans are assessing the matchup between Ivica Saric and Giannis Antetokounmpo. New Zealand scored an impressive win over Croatia (in their opening game). The Tall Blacks are slight favorites over the (vulnerable) Doncic (and the Junaki). The other side of the draw saw Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring double figures in Greece’s routing of Bahrain. If the Milwaukee Bucks star continues to play this way, then there’s no reason to doubt Greece’s chances of punching their way to Paris. We predict Greece to win this qualifier.
*H - host nation
Brazil, Cameroon, Georgia, Latvia (H), Montenegro, and the Philippines
Kristaps Korzingis injured his leg during the first game of the NBA Finals. He went under the knife afterwards, so that would make him unavailable for the 2024 FIBA Men’s Olympic Qualifying Tournament - Riga. Latvia is still the team to beat in his event, as they have the home court advantage. (Watch out for the boisterous home fans.)
The loss to Gilas could mean that Latvia might play Brazil in the (crossover) semifinal. It would be a tougher match than the Latvia men’s basketball national team had planned, but would make it to the finals. Tim Cone is hoping for Gilas Pilipinas to reach the finals (and play Latvia again). It might happen, but the results would be different. No one would be in their right mind (and choose any team other than Latvia).
*H - host nation
Bahrain, Italy, Ivory Coast, Lithuania, Mexico, and Puerto Rico (H)
Is Lithuania capable of beating Italy? This question came to mind after Lithuania’s win over Mexico (in their opener). It wasn’t impressive (by Lithuanian standard). Italy is too hot to handle (after that blowout of Bahrain). Gli Azzurri will meet Puerto Rico before the end of the group stage. The host team can give a stiff challenge to the Italians during the first half. Only. We still believe that Gli Azzurri won’t have lots of trouble during the knockout round. Lithuania will miss the Summer Olympics for the second time (and it's a sad thing).
*H - host nation
Angola, Bahamas, Finland, Lebanon, Poland, and Spain (H)
As mentioned earlier, the FIBA Men’s Olympic Qualifying Tournament - Valencia is shaping up to be a match between Spain, the two-time FIBA Basketball World Cup winners, and unheralded Bahamas. Spain's men's basketball national team may have lacked the big names that brought Los Rojos honors, but there are lots of talents on the Spanish side. (Willy Hernangomez, a center for FC Barcelona, led the Los Rojos to their fourth EuroBasket title.)
It’s still a game for Spain to lose. (We can’t help but look ahead. Australia, Canada, Greece, and Spain comprise Group A of the 2024 Paris Olympics. It’s interesting to see how the current roster of Spanish players fare against the Canadian team. Canada beat Spain in the 2023 FIBA Men’s Basketball World Cup. And then there’s the resilient Boomers.)
*H - host nation
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