All rookie-scale extensions signed today are effectively wagers on a number that hasn't been realized: the overall projection of NBA salaries and the cap several years down the road. It's about to get a lot busier, as the influx of new national media rights dollars is accelerating the rise of the cap higher than it has risen in years. This piece is not about the past, it's about the future – at which draft classes will be extension-eligible moving forward, the trajectory of the cap as it moves the math, and how much larger the rookie-scale max money is going to be for the next one to three offseasons.
In one line: rookie-scale max extensions will be much larger – not because the extension rules are changing, but because the salary cap itself will be rising at a brisker pace than usual, given the NBA's new national media rights contract, due to increasing extensions for the next two or three draft classes, who will be negotiating from a much higher number than the first couple of classes after they got paid.
That distinction matters. Who is allowed to start at what percentage of the cap, and what constitutes a rookie extension framework are determined by the CBA, and will not change from year to year. It's the actual size of the cap itself that changes; each rookie max is a percentage of that figure. When a number goes up, a flat rule brings up the dollar amount, and that's what the league is in for right now.
When a first-round pick is drafted, he is immediately signed to a 4-year rookie-scale contract, and each year's salary has been predetermined based on his draft position. The offseason after a player's third season (before his fourth (option) season) is when he becomes extension-eligible. From there, two layers go:
| Max Tier | Share of the Cap | How a Player Qualifies |
| Standard rookie max | 25% | Default tier – most rookie-scale extensions are negotiated here |
| Designated Rookie (“Rose Rule”) | 30% | Meeting alternate criteria such as an All-NBA selection, Defensive Player of the Year award, or MVP finish in a recent season |
| Full veteran supermax | 35% | Not available at the rookie-extension stage – this tier requires additional years of NBA service and is signed later, on a player's next contract cycle |
It is this difference between the 25% and 30% brackets that makes a critical difference to players who meet the “Rose Rule” requirements prior to their deadline versus those who don't, even if both obviously have a high level of player ability, and, in real dollars, the size of the gap widens the larger the cap.
The NBA's salary cap is based on a percentage of the league's revenue, and a significant portion of that revenue is derived from the national media rights. The league's new national TV deals (NBC, Disney/ESPN and Amazon) were extensively reported as a multi-billion dollar windfall over the previous deal, with the added cash expected to hit league revenues beginning in 2025-26. That's a bigger revenue base than the cap's been based on for the past decade, and more important, the cap is expected to grow more quickly than usual for several consecutive offseasons (fewer years that will produce a few contracts that will fail to perform after just one season – like the 2016 cap spike that turned free agency into a money pot, only to have several contracts that turn sour almost as soon as they're signed).
Below are the reputable Sportsbook cap tracker numbers for the classes leading into the tournament.
| Season | Salary Cap | Luxury Tax Line |
| 2026-27 (confirmed, active) | $164,961,000 | $200,428,000 |
| 2027-28 (projected) | $176,000,000 | $213,000,000 |
| 2028-29 (projected) | $184,800,000 | $224,532,000 |
This is about 6.7% of cap growth between 2026-27 and 2027-28, and 5% the following year, both in excess of the historical average of 3-10% in a normal year, but not all the way up, but smoothed instead, and as described above.
Those who got drafted in 2024 – including Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, Donovan Clingan and Matas Buzelis from the lottery – will be in their third season in the NBA with the 2026-27 campaign. This class is one of the first to be in the extension window in the 2027 offseason, with a new cap ceiling that has been raised using the 2027 minimum wage increases. This class is one of the earliest classes to enter the extension window in the 2027 offseason, as the new cap ceiling has been raised based on the 2027 minimum wage increment.
The 2025 class, led by top overall Cooper Flagg, will not be eligible for extension until 2028. This class, which is the most likely to see some of its biggest rookie-scale contracts in league history in terms of raw dollars, is due to several years of new media rights growth, even if the percentage remains the same.
Dallas Mavericks selected Cooper Flagg first overall, one of the rarest odds in league history with a 1.8% chance of being picked No. 1. The rest of the 2025 lotteries, which are likely to constitute the class of extension-eligible players in the 2028 offseason if those players hold up to their rookie-level production: Dylan Harper (No. 2, San Antonio Spurs), V.J. Edgecombe (No. 3, Philadelphia 76ers), Kon Knueppel (No. 4, Charlotte Hornets), Ace Bailey (No. 5, Utah Jazz), Tre Johnson (No. 6, Washington Wizards), Jeremiah Fears (No. 7, New Orleans Pelicans), Egor Dëmin (No. 8, Brooklyn Nets), Collin Murray-Boyles (No. 9, Toronto Raptors) and Khaman Maluach (No. 10, Houston Rockets, who were traded to Phoenix on draft day).
Picks 11-30 of the same first round, for reference: Cedric Coward (No. 11, drafted by Portland, traded to Memphis), Noa Essengue (No. 12, Chicago Bulls), Derik Queen (No. 13, drafted by Atlanta, traded to New Orleans), Carter Bryant (No. 14, San Antonio Spurs), Thomas Sorber (No. 15, Oklahoma City Thunder), Yang Hansen (No. 16, drafted by Memphis, traded to Portland), Joan Beringer (No. 17, Minnesota Timberwolves), Walter Clayton Jr. (No. 18, drafted by Washington, traded to Utah), Nolan Traoré (No. 19, Brooklyn Nets), Kasparas Jakučionis (No. 20, Miami Heat), Will Riley (No. 21, drafted by Utah, traded to Washington), Drake Powell (No. 22, drafted by Atlanta, traded to Brooklyn), Asa Newell (No. 23, drafted by New Orleans, traded to Atlanta), Nique Clifford (No. 24, drafted by Oklahoma City, traded to Sacramento), Jase Richardson (No. 25, Orlando Magic), Ben Saraf (No. 26, Brooklyn Nets), Danny Wolf (No. 27, Brooklyn Nets), Hugo González (No. 28, Boston Celtics), Liam McNeeley (No. 29, drafted by Phoenix, traded to Charlotte), and Yanic Konan Niederhauser (No. 30, LA Clippers).
The last four extension cycles are outlined before you: the 2022 class extended in 2025 against the previous cap numbers, the 2023 class extended that cycle this time on the new TV money as it started to trickle in, and the 2024 class and 2025 class will both extend in 2027 and 2028 with a cap that's compounded by several more years of new money. Same rules, same percentages – steadily increasing number below each cycle.
The ones who are looking to be the next Designated Rookie extension and will likely be on the MVP, Rookie of the Year and All-NBA futures boards are typically the same ones. Sports OKBet is designed to enable you to take that read.
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The new rookie max extension rules remain unchanged – it's just that the number they're based on is changing. The 2024 and 2025 classes will sign the largest rookie-scale contracts in league history, as they will be eligible a few years late. These young stars have futures markets moving when they have, and that's where Sports OKBet can be put to use.
It is an extension signed by a team with a player who is still on his rookie scale 4-year contract, which gets a share of the salary cap up to 25% by default, or up to 30% if the player has met alternative “Designated Rookie” criteria, such as being an All-NBA selection.
Eligibility is much fuller in the offseason after a player's third year in the NBA, before he's in his fourth and final rookie scale year.
New league revenue from national media rights is set to increase more than normal, driving up the cap. Max dollars are a percentage of the cap, so the larger the cap, the larger the max dollars if rules are the same.
The 2024 class will gain eligibility in the 2027 offseason and the 2025 class (which includes fellow lottery picks Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, Kon Knueppel and Ace Bailey) will also become eligible in 2028 – but against a significantly higher cap than it is this year.
Yes, it's intentional, but that growth rate is projected to be higher than it's been over the past few seasons and the league has been reported to be looking to distribute that growth over several seasons, rather than one big jump.
Check out our accompanying article on the 2026 rookie extension cycle, where you'll see what deals were done this offseason.
