The Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans meet as two teams looking for their first victory of the season when they trade blows Thursday night at the Smoothie King Center. This Kings vs Pelicans lineup call is a look at the form, injuries, and matchup trends that will influence Thursday’s line, revealing where the real-world advantage lies.
Both the clubs come into the tournament at 0-3 but both have done it in very different ways and that’s what makes the difference.
The Kings have been completely outplayed after three games. Their first game of the season was a 96-121 blowout defeat at the LA Clippers, followed by a pair of home losses to Portland (120-128) and Memphis (112-123). Sacramento is only averaging 109.3 points per game down 18.1 points from the team’s year-round top performer and has 124.0 points allowed per game, which is 18.6 points below the league leader. That’s their net rating of -14.5, which is 28th of 30 teams, and way past the point where it’s just a random fluctuation.
It’s also Thursday, the second night of a three-game stretch with a road game at San Antonio on Oct. 27 before Sacramento gets back to the court for a Pelicans team at home.
New Orleans has fallen by the widest of margins: 120-123 at home at Indiana, 119-120 on the road against Utah and a wild 135-141 overtime defeat at Denver. While the numbers are better in Sacramento, that’s not the case in Los Angeles where the underlying numbers don’t suggest a team getting run off the floor: The Pelicans are ranked 4th in the league in scoring at 124.7 points per game. The problem has been all defensive, as New Orleans is giving up 128.0 points per game, 28th in the league, which has eliminated the advantage of that offense and resulted in a -3.1 net rating.
The interesting wrinkle on Thursday is schedule spot, as the Pelicans play Denver home Oct. 28 before heading back to play Sacramento on Oct. 29. It’s a tangible reality for a team that already faces challenges with getting stops.
| Team | Player | Status | Note |
| Kings | Maxime Raynaud | Out | Right knee (patellar subluxation) suffered in preseason; ruled out for the start of the season |
| Kings | Keegan Murray | Questionable/limited | Has appeared in only 2 of Sacramento's first 3 games; exact Thursday availability unconfirmed at the time of writing |
| Pelicans | No new injuries of note | — | New Orleans' rotation (Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Derik Queen) has been intact through the first three games |
But it’s Sacramento’s depth that is more of an issue here. The Kings have been relying on Domantas Sabonis and Precious Achiuwa for a lot of playing time on the inside in the absence of Raynaud and Murray’s inconsistent game. More injury information for the Kings before tip-off would only add to that pressure — a last look at the official injury report will be sufficient.
| Player | Team | PPG | REB | AST | Note |
| Domantas Sabonis | Kings | 18.7 | 17.3 | 7.0 | Near triple-double averages through 3 games |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 29.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | Sacramento's clear top scoring option early |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | Kings | 22.3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | Has emerged as a surprise secondary scorer |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 20.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | Leading New Orleans in minutes and usage |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | 20.3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | Running the Pelicans' top-4 offense |
| Trey Murphy III | Pelicans | 15.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | Floor-spacing wing, key to New Orleans' pace |
The depth in the frontcourt is the area of concern here in Sacramento. The Kings have been going to a lot of trouble with Domantas Sabonis and Precious Achiuwa on the inside as Raynaud is out and Murray has been himself. More injury information for the Kings before tip-off would only add to that pressure — a last look at the official injury report will be sufficient.
Both sides came into the game at 0-3. The difference is that Sacramento’s defense has been one-sided against all opponents and New Orleans’ issues are closing since they have (generally) one of the league’s top offenses. That comes into play Thursday, when a Pelicans team that scores in bunches hosts a Kings defense that ranks 25th in the league.
The back-to-back is the key factor for the Pelicans. New Orleans surely had a full night’s game last week before a tiring second game in as many nights on the road, and Sacramento, though it too faced challenges, has proven it can find buckets through LaVine and Acuff Jr. If New Orleans emerges on the defensive side with heavy feet, then this might become a shootout instead of a defensive comeback for both teams.
Both teams have had little to offer in the defensive department, and that’s just as it should be as it means that both sides will likely be scoring a lot of goals if one team does win. The Pelicans’ net rating is better (-3.1 compared to Sacramento’s -14.5) and they have the extra juice, so the formula is more sustainable on the moneyline with the two in back-to-back. The home side here has a slight edge to the Pelicans, but the total value probably lies with the total of the game and not necessarily with the spread, as both defenses have proven so far.
It’s not a game to treat as a lock in either direction: Two teams with no winning records can throw an interesting game, and rotations (especially Sacramento’s frontcourt) are still in flux early in the season.
Lean: Pelicans (moneyline) in a game that should go over, given Sacramento’s defensive problems and New Orleans’ back-to-back fatigue. Consider it more of a value play than it is a sure thing and be sure to verify final injury calls before making final decisions.
Two teams with no wins are lining up Thursday, but the numbers might still be in New Orleans’ favor behind the Pelicans’ back-to-back because of the fact that New Orleans has a much higher offensive ceiling than Sacramento, which has the league’s worst defense. Bettors should take a close look at the injury report on Keegan Murray and not rely on this as an insurance play, as both teams are still in their infancy at three games into the season.
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New Orleans has a slight advantage at home thanks to their best net rating and top-4 offense of the season, but Sacramento's perimeter scorers are making that a non-lopsided favorite.
No, Raynaud is out with a right knee injury (patellar subluxation) he suffered during the pre-season period, and has not made his season debut.
Unconfirmed at this time — has appeared in just 2 of the first 3 games for Sacramento. See official NBA injury report nearer to the game.
The Sacrament offense is the league's worst (124.7 PPG, 4th) while the New Orleans defense is the bottom-three (124.0 PPG, last).
Yes. The next day, he'll face Denver on Oct. 29 in New Orleans, just before this game on Oct. 28, which will make it even more difficult to defend the young clu
