Four games weren't enough to settle it. Barangay Ginebra won the first two games by a total of 36 points, San Miguel won the next two by a total of 10, and now it is down to the last game, to be played at Ynares Center-Antipolo. Our call: Ginebra has improved, but it's only around a coin flip better than the first two blowouts — San Miguel's George King and Chris Ross have been the better players on the floor since Game 3 and Ginebra will need a little resurgence from a cold shooting RJ Abarrientos to save this one.
Pick: Barangay Ginebra to secure Game 5 victory to face TNT in the semifinals. It's not high, but it's moderate — San Miguel outscored Ginebra by 13 combined points in the previous two games, and has the most experience of a comeback in the league. But, in an elimination tournament format, the greater depth of Ginebra's rotation and the way they bounce back, like Jordan Murphy who picked up 22 boards in Game 4 alone, make their floor slightly superior.
This series has come in two-game blocks. In the first game on October 27, the hosts, Ginebra, routed the defending champions San Miguel, 104-95, who had been averaging 121.4 points in the elimination round. Three days later it looked like a sweep was in the offing as Ginebra opened the scoring with 16 three-pointers in a 126-99 Game 2 victory at Ninoy Aquino Stadium with Jordan Murphy scoring 33 points on 10 rebounds and 9 assists.
But San Miguel had other ideas in mind. Ginebra missed a pair of potential series-clinching shots in the dying moments of Game 3 on Nov. 3, leading to the Beermen's victory, 101-98. The next highlight of the series came when San Miguel went on a 22-0 run and increased the lead to 46-18 in the third quarter of Game 4 on Nov. 6, when they eventually held on to clinch a 108-102 victory and tie the series at 2-2. George King scored 35 points and grabbed 15 rebounds in that game and Chris Ross, who averaged 2.7 points over the first three games, racked up 20 points, 9 assists and 5 steals.
These two are no strangers to each other – after all, it was the same matchup that went the distance in SMB and Ginebra's Game 7 semifinal battle, and both teams are no strangers to how fast the momentum can shift in such a rivalry.
| Player | Team | What to watch |
| Jordan Murphy | Ginebra (import) | 22 rebounds in Game 4 but just 2 points after halftime — needs to keep scoring after the Beermen adjust |
| Scottie Thompson | Ginebra | Team-high 27 points, 11 rebounds in Game 4; Ginebra's most consistent two-way piece all series |
| RJ Abarrientos | Ginebra | Averaged 19.7 points through Games 1-3, then went 2-of-13 for 7 points in Game 4 — the swing player for Ginebra's offense |
| George King | San Miguel (import) | 35 points, 15 rebounds in Game 4 after being held to 20 in the series opener |
| Chris Ross | San Miguel | Coach Leo Austria's pick as the team's leader; 20 points, 9 assists, 5 steals in Game 4 after a quiet first three games |
| June Mar Fajardo | San Miguel | Just 3 points in Game 1 and 8 in Game 4 — a future Hall of Famer who has been a non-factor offensively all series |
The one clear-cut variable is the half-court attack in front of Justin Brownlee, who hasn't played a minute in the series. Brownlee is still out after a double over-time defeat to Gilas Pilipinas in July and Ginebra has imported Jordan Murphy as his replacement. While Murphy isn't the closest he's been for the last decade, Brownlee, he's certainly not a shot-creator like that non-aisle-walking point guard, and that was apparent in the second half of Game 4, when Ginebra's offense had a lag. That is putting the pressure on RJ Abarrientos, whose game was key to this series (19.7 points per game, then 2-of-13 from the field when Ginebra was in need).
The San Miguel side of the equation is based on trust to a formula which has proven to be successful twice. In Game 4, the Beermen didn't have a bad night at the shooting pad so much as they were back to their starting point in the form of an attacking, regressive attack with George King and Chris Ross flashing a lot of times all series. But if San Miguel finds that sort of King early on, then it's only a matter of time before Ginebra's back is against the wall and only Scottie Thompson and Murphy can come up with the game's answers.
The import, Brownlee, is still in recovery with no confirmed return date, while Ginebra coach Tim Cone has said only that the import plans to return and Murphy has started all four games of this series in his absence. June Mar Fajardo hasn't missed a game but his scoring has been all but gone (3 points in Game 1, 8 points in Game 4) – it's a game of the players/role question for San Miguel and not one of health. Both teams had been in a state of perpetual fouls in Game 5, having neither team reported a new absence through Game 4.
This is a true win-or-go-home game: the loser's Governors' Cup campaign ends on the spot, and the winner moves on to face defending champion TNT in a best-of-five semifinal series starting December 4 (Converge, which eliminated Rain or Shine, awaits the winner of NLEX's series on the other side). San Miguel enters with some built-in confidence that elimination games aren't automatically fatal — the franchise has rallied from 0-3 in a best-of-seven before, and famously stormed back from 0-3 against Alaska in the 2016 Philippine Cup. Coach Leo Austria has played down the comparison, saying the team isn't trying to "exaggerate the situation," but the history is real, and it's part of why this series feels less settled than a 2-0 start suggested.
Prediction: Prediction: Barangay Ginebra to win Game 5 and advance
Pick: Ginebra win Game 5 with a 60/40 margin
Reason: They have demonstrated they can go against this series and show some big shots from their role players, and they have the rebounding advantage over San Miguel. However, when you also factor in Abarrientos's Game 4 meltdown and the ability of San Miguel to run the ball in the third quarter, it's likely more of a 55/45 proposition.
This is a two blowout, 13-point difference and two deciding-game streak that's the type of game where holding onto a single pregame number could miss out on some value. Sports OKBet keeps the in-play lines as they change with the flow of the game, as San Miguel may be able to run a variety of ways in any given quarter. For PH bettors who want to get their money on the line before the 7:30 PM tip-off of Tuesday, deposits and withdrawals made via GCash and Maya remain easy.
This game has been so volatile over the past few games, it's also an elimination game which leads people to chase a bad read on momentum. Before the game starts, set a budget and adhere to it no matter how it plays out — Sports OKBet, licensed by PAGCOR, offers deposit limit and self-exclusion features in the account settings for those who wish for regulation. Check PAGCOR's responsible gaming resources if you'd like more information on those options.
It's been two blowouts, two comebacks and a completely different story every two games in the series — Ginebra vs San Miguel Game 5, at least, is as close to a true toss-up as the Governors' Cup quarterfinals will get this year. The team with the "cleaner" versions of its best players — Abarrientos for Ginebra and King and Ross for San Miguel — should be the one to face TNT in December. As the game tips off, review Sports OKBet's basketball department to see live odds and coverage.
The tip-off will be 7:30 PM Philippine time on Tuesday, November 10 at Ynares Center-Antipolo.
Yes. It's a best-of-five quarterfinal series, and it's 2-2, so the loser of Game 5 loses his/her Governors' Cup conference.
The victor will play a best-of-five matchup against the defending champion TNT beginning Dec. 4.
Yes — the franchise has come back from an 0-3 disadvantage in a best-of-seven matchup in the past and has even bounced back with four wins in a row since falling behind 0-3 to Alaska in the 2016 Philippine Cup.
