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Underdog Success Rates When to Betting Against the Favorite

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January 3, 2025
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In the dynamic world of sports betting, wagering on the underdog can be both thrilling and profitable. While favorites often dominate the narrative, underdogs have a history of defying expectations, leading to substantial payouts for astute bettors. This article delves into the historical success rates of underdog bets, examines sports where betting against the favorite frequently triumph, and offers strategic insights on when betting against the favorite might be advantageous.

Understanding Underdog Success Rates

Underdog success rates vary across different sports, influenced by factors such as game structure, scoring systems, and competitive balance. Analyzing these rates provides valuable insights for bettors seeking to capitalize on potential upsets.

Underdog Win Percentages by Sport

According to data from Odds Shark, the win percentages for underdogs over the last five regular seasons are as follows:

SportUnderdog Win Percentage
Major League Baseball (MLB)41.6%
National Hockey League (NHL)41.4%
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)35%
National Football League (NFL)34.2%
National Basketball Association (NBA)32.1%
NCAA Basketball25.9%
NCAA Football21.9%

These statistics highlight that underdogs in MLB and NHL have a higher likelihood of winning compared to other sports, making them attractive options for bettors.

Factors Influencing Underdog Success

Several factors contribute to the success of underdogs:

  • Game Structure: Sports with lower scoring systems, like soccer, often experience more upsets due to the increased impact of a single goal.
  • Competitive Balance: Leagues with greater parity among teams, such as the NFL, tend to have higher underdog success rates.
  • Motivation and Psychology: Underdogs may exhibit heightened motivation, leading to unexpected victories.

When to Betting Against the Favorite

Identifying the right moment to bet against the favorite often requires a deep dive into specific trends, matchups, and external factors. In sports like the NFL and NHL, for instance, divisional games are often ripe for surprises as teams are more familiar with one another’s strategies. Similarly, home underdogs have historically leveraged their crowd support and home-field advantage to outperform expectations. In fact, data reveals that betting on NFL home underdogs with spreads greater than 7 points has yielded a winning percentage of nearly 60%.

Late-season games or events involving external factors like extreme weather or player fatigue can also tilt the scales in favor of underdogs. These scenarios require a careful balance of historical trends and gut instinct to find value bets

Divisional Games

In the NFL, underdogs in divisional games often perform better due to familiarity between teams. Betting on short early-season divisional underdogs has shown a 22% return on investment.

Home Underdogs

Home-field advantage can bolster underdog performance. In the NFL, home underdogs with a spread greater than 7 points have produced a winning percentage of 59.69%.

Late-Season Games

Late-season games, especially in outdoor settings, can be unpredictable due to weather conditions and team fatigue, increasing the potential for underdog victories.

Notable Historical Underdog Victories

Throughout sports history, underdogs have achieved remarkable victories that defied the odds.

"Miracle on Ice" – 1980 Winter Olympics
One of the most iconic underdog victories in sports history occurred during the 1980 Winter Olympics. The U.S. men’s hockey team, composed mainly of amateurs and collegiate players, faced the dominant Soviet Union team, widely considered unbeatable at the time. Against all odds, the U.S. secured a stunning 4-3 victory in the semifinal, a feat that came to symbolize perseverance and unity. This "Miracle on Ice" remains a defining moment in sports and a testament to the power of underdogs.

Leicester City's Premier League Triumph – 2015-2016
Another legendary upset came from the world of soccer when Leicester City defied 5000-to-1 preseason odds to win the English Premier League in 2015-2016. Despite operating on a modest budget compared to league giants, Leicester’s incredible teamwork and resilience carried them to the top of one of the world’s most competitive leagues. Their improbable triumph captivated fans worldwide and redefined what was possible for underdogs in professional sports.

Read more of our football blogs

Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

To enhance success when betting on underdogs, consider the following strategies:

Analyze Team Performance and Statistics

Assess recent performances, player injuries, and other relevant statistics to make informed decisions.

Monitor Betting Trends

Observing betting patterns can provide insights into public perception and potential value in underdog bets.

Consider External Factors

Factors such as weather conditions, travel schedules, and team morale can influence game outcomes.

FAQs

1. What is an underdog in sports betting?

An underdog is a team or competitor expected to lose a game or match, as determined by bookmakers and public perception.

2. How often do underdogs win in the NFL?

Underdogs in the NFL have a win percentage of approximately 34.2%.

3. Is betting on underdogs profitable?

Betting on underdogs can be profitable, especially when identifying favorable conditions and leveraging higher payouts associated with underdog bets.

4. Which sport has the highest underdog win rate?

Major League

Are you Ready to Bet on Underdogs?

Betting against the favorite can be a rewarding strategy when informed by historical data and contextual analysis. By understanding underdog success rates and identifying favorable conditions, bettors can make strategic wagers that capitalize on potential upsets.Ready to apply these insights to your betting strategy? Play now and Explore our comprehensive guides on sports betting to enhance your decision-making and increase your chances of success.

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