The United States of America (USA) won the inaugural edition of the United Cup two years ago. Germany is the 2024 winner. Will Poland win the third edition?
Hubert Hurkacz was unable to defend his Rolex Shanghai Masters title due to a calf injury, which could mean that his 2024 season would be over. On the other hand, Iga Swiatek was vocal about not playing too many tournaments this season. Świątek hasn’t played a match since losing to Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals of the US Open.
She didn’t compete in the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) 1000 tournaments in Beijing and Wuhan, which should mean one thing: the top-ranked Polish star is focusing on the 2024 WTA Finals. But let’s move a little bit forward.
Poland came close to winning the 2024 United Cup, losing to Germany in the super tiebreak in the deciding mixed doubles match. Świątek was voted the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of that tournament, though.
Both Hurkacz and Świątek would be well rested before they traveled to Down Under. But that is a big IF. Tennis fans will find out the 16 teams that will participate in the 2025 United Cup very soon while the last two teams will be announced in November.
It will depend on the availability of the top players OR their willingness to participate in a mixed-gender event on a country-to-country basis that offers 500 ATP and 500 WTA points to the winners. Before we make our predictions, let’s have a look at the history of this relatively new tennis tournament.
The tennis landscape was different several decades ago, when playing in Australia wasn’t a priority among top players. In fact, the Australian Open was once held every December. Change came in 1987, when the Australian Open was moved to January.
And Melbourne Park, then Flinders Park, became the new venue of the first Grand Slam tournament of the season. All that was left was a warm-up tourney to start the tennis season with a bang. There were ATP 250 and WTA 250 events held in Australia’s biggest cities and in Auckland, New Zealand, but Tennis Australia wanted to bring the top players of both ATP Tour and WTA Tour together.
The Hopman Cup, named after Harry Hopman, who guided Australia to 15 Davis Cup titles, attracted some of the top players through the years. The US won the Hopman Cup a total of six times, the most by any nation. Roger Federer and Belinda Bencic were the winners of the last two editions before the pandemic. The Hopman Cup, and the now-defunct ATP Cup, would give way to the United Cup.
The United Cup was a tennis tournament many years in the making. If the first two editions were indications, then this mixed gender event would be a success. Fans won’t see a number of top players for the third edition of the United Cup; Jannik Sinner’s immediate future is still in doubt after the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) decided to appeal the doping case of Sinner.
Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, chose to skip all warm-up events in Australia early this year. He might be thinking that this could be the best way to prepare for the Australian Open. Alexander Zverev defeated Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. What about Świątek? She parted ways with her former coach Tomasz Wiktorowski after three trophy-laden seasons
It might be the reason behind her not traveling to China this month, but fans are wondering if this could affect her form next year. They will find out sooner or later.
We’ll base our predictions on the performance of the top players these last few seasons, and how they collectively fare in team events (e.g. Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup). And let’s not forget the availability, or unavailability, of the top players.
We’re about to present the four teams, or countries, that are likely to reach the final four. And the two teams, or countries, that are likely to be the dark horses of the tournaments.
Here’s our Final Four:
Why they might win:
Team captain Lleyton Hewitt always brings out the best of his players, his gutsy play has rubbed off on the likes of Alexei Popyrin. Australia has the home court advantage, and it’s only a matter of which players would be selected for the first singles, second singles, and the mixed doubles respectively.
Australia came close early this year, losing to eventual champion Germany; we thought that Laura Siegemund should be the MVP of the tournament, as she was instrumental in winning the crucial doubles rubber against Australia in the semifinals and then Polan in the finals. We were certain that Hewitt took notes.
Why they might not win:
Tennis Australia sorely missed Ashleigh Barty since her retirement in 2022. No Aussie woman came close to what she achieved. Ajla Tomljanović could be the leading player on the women’s side, but how she would fare against the top-ranked Świątek, or the resurging Paula Badosa, is anyone’s guess. If Hewitt decides on fielding the second-ranked Australian (female) player, then the home team would be in hot water. What can you suggest to Hewitt?
Why they might win:
Italy is the favorite on paper, and it’s not hard to figure it out. Paolini, a finalist at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, is not to be taken lightly on the hard courts. Sinner’s absence won’t affect the chances of the Italian team, as Lorenzo Musetti, or Matteo Berrettini, can take his place. Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori won the US Open mixed doubles title last summer. And fans can count on these top players to travel to Australia before Christmas.
Why they might not win:
The Italian Tennis and Padel Federation must ensure that all of their top players can commit to the 2025 United Cup, as their dismal results during the 2024 United Cup can happen again.
Why they might win:
Paula Badosa is finally back on the forefront, and that is great news. Spanish fans are most delighted about her comeback, as her recent form would indicate that she could be a contender in the major tournaments next season. Badosa can play in both singles and mixed doubles. If only the Royal Spanish Tennis Federation can make her commit to the opening tournament of the ATP and WTA seasons.
Why they might not win:
We’re not counting on Alcaraz to travel to Australia before Christmas Eve. As a matter of fact, the fate of the Spanish team depends on the men’s side. Tennis fans would find it hard to believe, but consistency has been an issue. And Rafael Nadal might hang up his tennis racket next season.
Why they might win:
The US is still a hot favorite after the painful loss in the 2024 United Cup. (The Americans failed to advance to the semifinals after having a lower win-lose ratio to Australia.) Coco Gauff, the winner of the WTA 1000 event in Beijing, is likely to skip this mixed-gender event again.
We’re counting on Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro, though. There are seven American players in the Top 50 of the ATP rankings at the moment, so the United States Tennis Association (USTA) has many options.
Why they might not win:
The mixed doubles match often decides the outcome of the tie. It’s not the mixed doubles is the Achilles’s heel of the American team, but not two players have played in the Grand Slam (mixed doubles) events many times. The US changed teams a total of three times during the 2024 United Cup, and that wasn’t a good thing. Perhaps Jessica Pegula and Austin Krajicek should start to practice together.
Why they might win:
The Czech Republic, not Italy, are supposed to be the hot favorites, but the availability, or commitment, of their top players would be a big question. Tennis fans would love to see Tomáš Macháč and Kateřina Siniaková play together after winning the gold medal in the Paris Olympics, but the addition of Barbora Krejčíková, or Markéta Vondroušová, can give the Czech team a fighting chance. The Czech Republic may, or may not, advance to the semifinals after winning, or losing, on a win-lose ratio.
Why they might win:
As we discussed earlier, the chances of the Polish team depends on the health of Hurkacz and Świątek.
We’re betting on Italy. How about you? Your thoughts?
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