Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, and Carlo Alcaraz qualified for the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals. Most tennis fans think that Sinner and Alcaraz will slug it out in the finals. Hold your horses!
If the leaderboard won’t change next month, then it’s possible that Sinner and Alcaraz, who have six Grand Slam titles between them, will play against each other in group play. And the result can change the outcome of the finals. It’s a long, grueling season. Not a few top players complained about fatigue and injury. The 2024 ATP Finals might be wide open. Widest? It depends between now and the finals.
The top players will compete in two Masters 1000 events (Shanghai and Paris) and two Masters 500 tournaments (Beijing/Tokyo and Basel/Vienna). Let’s not discount the two ATP 250 events. It’s a total of 3,500 points, so the players with the best results have a good chance of traveling to Turin, Italy.
Here’s the leaderboard (as of September 23, 2024):
We would like to see Alex de Minaur making his debut appearance in the season-ending championships. But he’s struggling with a hip injury. He has a slight lead over the other contenders. They are bubbling under the Top 8. One of these players, if not a few of them, would play in Palasport Olimpico if they play well in the upcoming events. Let’s get to business!
The next set of players aren’t out of contention. Yet. They are ranked ninth to fifteenth. They have the mathematical chance of overtaking de Minaur (and play in Turin).
In fact, two of these players can qualify for the finals if the Australian’s hip issues aren't resolved next month and the other qualifier is about to burn out. It’s interesting to note that three of them have won the ATP Finals before. Let’s assess their chances:
Novak Djokovic defeated Jannik Sinner in the finals of the 2023 ATP Finals. It was his seventh title, the most by any player. It also capped another phenomenal season where he won three of the four major titles.
But Djokovic hasn't won an ATP tournament this season. He didn’t play many events, but his performance was good enough for ninth place. The Serb could defend his title if he would win the Rolex Shanghai Masters and Rolex Paris Masters. It could have been a certainty if he was younger.
And many fans wonder about Djokovic being inconsistent in three setters. In this regard, those H2H matchups are unreliable. We think Djokovic wouldn’t qualify for the season-ending championships because there are a couple of players who could leapfrog him. Both players are below him (at this moment).
Grigor Dimitrov, the 2017 ATP Finals winner, is enjoying a resurgence. He might be 33 years of age, but he’s still a spring chicken. The likes of Dominic Thiem are retiring at the end of this season, and they are younger than Dimitrov.
The Bulgarian showed a lot of promise after winning the boy’s singles title at the 2008 Wimbledon Championships. Not a few fans were reminded of Roger Federer. And it might not have helped him. Dimitrov had a great summer, his performance in the recent Laver Cup included.
He’s been consistent in the hard courts. He may not have the winning edge in his H2H matchups with the other contenders, but we would bet on him. He can compete in the ATP Finals one more time.
The native of Boca Raton, Florida played his best game this season, winning an ATP 500 event in London and then reaching the last eight in Wimbledon. He’s also a semifinalist in Indian Wells last spring. He had an ankle injury, which wasn’t serious.
However, it’s hard to tell if it would affect his form for the remaining weeks of the season. (Paul didn’t represent Team World in the 2024 Laver Cup due to injury.) The American has yet to make it all the way in the biggest tournaments, so he could end up as one of the alternates in the 2024 ATP Finals.
Many tennis fans are unkind to Stefanos Tsitsipas in his social media accounts, where some are lamenting the fact that Greece’s top-ranked player lost his mojo. He’s not a contender anymore. He fell out of the Top 10 months ago.
It shouldn't cause an alarm, though. (Andre Agassi dropped out of the Top 100. Twice. And then he made a comeback. He won more Grand Slam titles.) We don’t see Tsitsipas, the 2019 ATP Finals winner, competing in Turin soon. But we see him making another breakthrough next season. French Open champion? Let’s see.
Hubert Hurkacz is the defending champion in Shanghai, so he will defend a lot of points. If he loses in the early rounds, then his chances of qualifying for the 2024 ATP Finals would be slim. The Pole has the game, and his H2H matchups don't reflect his capabilities. We foresee him going to Turin as the second alternate.
We like Frances Tiafoe’s chances of qualifying for the 2024 ATP Finals despite his inconsistent form this year. The American was runner-up at the Cincinnati Masters last month and then reached the final four in the US Open. He almost won his singles (rubber) match against Zverev in the recent Laver Cup. If he had won that match, Team World would have defended their Laver Cup successfully.
Keep in mind that Tiafoe reached the quarterfinals of the Rolex Paris Masters two years ago. Tiafoe, who lives in Orlando, Florida, plays his best in the biggest tournaments. Many top players are struggling to play their best. This might be Tiafoe’s best chance.
It would be nice if Lorenzo Musetti, a native of Carrara, Tuscany, will get the chance to play in front of home fans this November. His H2H matchup against the top players isn’t encouraging, though. Perhaps next year.
We predict Alex de Minaur holding on to his eighth, and final, position. He’ll compete in Turin, but his hip injury will flare up. Again. Tommy Paul or Hubert Hurkacz will take his place. On the other hand, Novak Djokovic won’t finish the season in the Top 8.
He won’t go to Turin (as an alternate). Taylor Fritz or Andrey Rublev might be too tired to continue playing. They also might get injured during the indoor court season in Europe. Grigor Dimitrov will play instead. What do you think?
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