As of October 7, 2026. Preseason rosters, injury reports, and odds are subject to rapid change, so take everything below NOTE with a grain of salt, closer to tip-off.
The 2026-27 NBA preseason will feature the Miami Heat and the New Orleans Pelicans facing off against each other on Thursday, October 8, 2026 (7:30 PM ET in Miami, early Friday morning, October 9, the same day in Philippine time) at Kaseya Center.
Prediction: Miami Heat. The Heat win the race primarily by circumstance and early results, as they have a new player in Giannis Antetokounmpo who's already looking better than he did in preseason games, and the Pelicans will control their minutes as they play the second half of a preseason back-to-back. This prediction for pelicans vs heat is based on accurate and up-to-date data and is not a guarantee - preseason basketball predictions are notoriously unreliable and we will explain why below.
It was the first time for Miami to play at Kaseya Center in their home preseason games this fall and the biggest story in the NBA this October is in the Heat's locker room: Giannis Antetokounmpo. Miami, who had acquired Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis for draft picks in Milwaukee, traded them for Miami's top pick, Tyler Herro, plus Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware and draft picks. Erik Spoelstra compared Antetokounmpo's playfulness to Magic Johnson in his preseason debut against Toronto, where he scored 9 points, assisted 7 times and couched 4 boards. When Antetokounmpo announced his arrival with Heat Culture, he likened the experience to being "alive again.
New Orleans went 116-110 against Oklahoma City at a neutral site on Oct. 7, with three of their top scorers—Bennedict Mathurin (13 points), Derik Queen (9 rebounds) and Dejounte Murray (6 assists)—all helping. That could lead to rotation, and increased caution with starting players, for the Pelicans who are playing this game on zero days.
Analysis: Both are far from locks, both teams are 1-0 and preseason gives no clue of regular season results. For this game, though, the Heat have the situational advantage of having a full week off, seeing the new superstar for the first time at home, and the New Orleans bounce.
The two teams have played each other once this preseason, with both having a 1-0 record (box scores above). Miami's team was all over for the summer and New Orleans was on their first-year head coach (Jamahl Mosley was just hired May 18, 2026), meaning there is not much predictive value to historical head-to-head results this season.
| Category | New Orleans Pelicans | Miami Heat | Edge |
| Recent Form | 1-0 preseason (beat OKC 116-110, Oct 7, neutral site) | 1-0 preseason (beat Toronto 129-105, Oct 3-4, road) | Miami (bigger margin, more rest before this game) |
| Offense | Murray, Poole, Murphy III, Mathurin provide perimeter scoring; 116 pts in opener | Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, Wiggins, Thompson, Portis give Miami multiple scoring/playmaking hubs; 129 pts in opener | Miami |
| Defense | Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III anchor a switchable wing defense | Bam Adebayo remains an elite rim/post defender; Antetokounmpo adds length and versatility | Miami |
| Key Players | Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herbert Jones, Bennedict Mathurin | Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Bobby Portis | Even (Miami's star power is newer and unproven together) |
| Depth | Jordan Poole, Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears, DeAndre Jordan, Saddiq Bey | Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Vladislav Goldin | Miami (slightly deeper after the Herro-for-Giannis/Portis trade) |
| Availability | No injuries listed on ESPN's tracker as of Oct 7, 2026 ⚠ (confirm Zion's minutes plan) | Keshad Johnson Out (hamstring); Dru Smith Questionable (calf) — both depth pieces | Pelicans (fewer reported absences), though neither absence is a core Miami rotation player |
Miami Heat
New Orleans Pelicans
As of October 7, 2026, according to ESPN's injury tracker: Miami's Keshad Johnson (F) was Out (right hamstring strain, est. return ~October 26) and Dru Smith (G) was Questionable (right calf strain, est. return ~October 16) - both not a core rotation player. There are no injuries reported in New Orleans ("No Data Available").
Additional names are "out" for both teams on a separate odds-and-injuries aggregator (Action Network) but they haven't been updated to reflect this week, so it's possible those are either stale or mis-dated. Check availability of team channels, beat reporters or the NBA injury report the same day before posting.
Starters receive limited first half minutes and reserves, two-way players and camp invitees receive longer rotations than regular season rotations.
Preseason basketball has inherent drawbacks when it comes to prediction:
Given all this, preseason results - including this one - should not be interpreted as a form guide for the regular season.
A listing for this matchup on Kalshi, a prediction-market site, had New Orleans at about 34 cents (34% implied probability), with Miami the implied favorite - an exchange price, not a sportsbook line, and likely to be confirmed closer to tip-off. If a sportsbook has a line before publishing, put the moneyline, spread/total, book name, and time stamp in here.
Sports OKBet is a PAGCOR-licensed sportsbook offering Philippine sports betting on this match between the Pelicans and the Heat, as well as other NBA games, both in the preseason and regular season. Once tip-off kicks in, bettors can follow conventional markets like moneyline, point spread, and totals (over/under) as well as live/in-play odds all through a mobile app that supports Philippine payment solutions like GCash and Maya. Just like any sportsbook, you need to make sure that there is a line on a particular matchup, as not every game will have full lines in the preseason.
Preseason games involve more variance than regular season games, such as experimental rotations, limited star minutes, and short rest rotation - decisions that can greatly affect the game outcome, but not necessarily "which team is better. Play with a predetermined stake that you know you can afford to lose and if you have trouble controlling your play, set up limits on your winnings or use a self-exclusion feature. To view the support resources, please go to PAGCOR's responsible gaming page.
Miami is coming into the preseason opener with a big advantage: a lopsided victory to get the ball rolling, a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo who appears to have some rhythm to him early on and a somewhat new rotation around the game's biggest star. New Orleans responds with a solid opener of their own but will need to turn over their rotation faster and have to do it right. This is not a destiny - preseason basketball is never destined - but for what information is known as of October 7, 2026, Miami is the choice in this pelicans vs heat prediction.
The above is based on situational factors and applies to Miami, though a sportsbook line to quantify the margin was not available as of this writing.
Miami Heat to win with Low confidence, due to the unknowns in preseason basketball.
The only available prediction-market quote was a Kalshi moneyline quote of New Orleans around 34%, as of October 7, 2026, and there was no possible confirmation from major sportsbooks regarding any posted moneyline, spread or total. Look at the sportsbook's live board just before the game starts.
For Miami: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Bobby Portis. For New Orleans: Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herbert Jones and Benneded Mathurin.
Only loosely. Results and stat lines, such as this one, are early signals and not proof due to limited star minutes, experimental lineups and inconsistent motivation.
It will broadcast in its home market on WPLG; viewers in other parts of the Philippines can watch on NBA League Pass; and bet on NBA regular season in the Philippines on a PAGCOR-licensed platform like Sports OKBet.
