Tennis

Italy won the 2023 Davis Cup. Jannik Sinner led the Italy men’s national tennis team to their second title, saving three match points in his (semifinal) rubber match against Novak Djokovic. Sinner, then the second-ranked player in the ATP rankings, made a remarkable turnaround and handed the then top-ranked Djokovic his second defeat in as many as eleven days.

And Italy beat Australia in the finals. Italians fans sensed that it was a sign of better things to come; the 2024 ATP Tour saw Sinner, a native of South Tyrol, reached the pinnacle of the ATP rankings, winning the Australian Open and US Open, and leading all active players with six ATP Tour titles. It was a bumpy, if not contentious, season after that anti-doping sanction.

What a year it was. Will it affect Italy’s chances of defending the Davis Cup? Maybe. 

Italy would’ve defended the Davis Cup successfully if the old (Davis Cup) format, where the tie was played over the span of three days, was still being used. However, the ATP Tour became crammed with too many tournaments.

And there’s a possibility that Saudi Arabia will host another ATP event in December. As Carlos Alcaraz put it, the long, grueling season is taking a heavy toll on the top players. Let’s hope that it won’t be too much on them. Fans don’t want to see anyone dying from playing too many tournaments.

In other words, the 2024 Davis Cup Finals is wide open. The fitness of the top players will be a determining factor; the Royal Spanish Tennis Federation have announced that Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal have committed their participation in the knockout round. Anything can happen, though. 

Here’s our prediction: 

The ranking of the Davis Cup Final 8 teams (as of September 18, 2024):

• Italy (1)
• Australia (2)
• Canada (3)
• USA (4)
• Germany (5)
• Netherlands (6)
• Spain (10)
• Argentina (15)

Quarterfinals:

Italy vs. Argentina

Italy men’s national tennis team will breeze through this tie. There won’t be a repeat of that memorable play in group play, where Argentina men’s national tennis team stunned Great Britain in front of British fans. 

Sinner is head and shoulders above the rest. If Matteo Arnaldi, who won the crucial (rubber) match in last year’s final, would be unavailable, then coach Filippo Volandri could turn to Lorenzo Musetti or Matteo Berrettini. If Sinner would be too tired, or could be rested due to a slight injury, then both Musetti and Berrettini should do the job. 

Our prediction: Italy will win by a wide margin (3-0)

USA vs. Australia

The United States and Australia are the most successful teams in Davis Cup history. Both teams have 60 Davis Cup titles between them, so it would be a shame for fans to see them competing against each other at this stage of the finals. But that was how the draw turned out. 

US coach Bob Bryan is expecting Taylor Fritz, 2024 US Open finalist, and Tommy Paul to lead the American team. The USA are the favorites on paper, but Lleyton Hewitt knows how to bring out the best out of his team. No one predicted Australia to reach the finals of the Davis Cup the last two years.

If Alex de Minaur’s hip injury won’t heal, then expect Thanasi Kokkinakis or Jordan Thompson to step in. Both players can do better than what their current rankings indicate. And three Aussies are among the best doubles players at the moment. 

Hewitt would like his chances. 

Our prediction: Australia will prevail (2-1)

Germany vs. Canada

This is rather tricky: Will Alexander Zverev’s participation make Germany the favorites? 

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov led the Canada men’s national tennis team to their first Davis Cup title two years ago. It remains to be seen if both players can make a breakthrough, but both are dangerous on the indoor (hard) courts.

On the other hand, Jan-Lennard Struff, who won his first ATP singles title last spring, could decide this tie. He’s capable of beating Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov. The German duo of Kevin Krawietz and Tim Putz have been consistent in the tour these last few years. 

German coach Michael Kohlmann might keep his fingers crossed on this tie. 

Our prediction: Germany will pass through (2-1)

Netherlands vs. Spain

Expect the local fans inside the Martin Carpena Arena to go wild between points. The finals might be the last time that Alcaraz and Nadal, or Nadalcaraz, play together.

Our prediction: Spain wins easily (3-0)

Semifinals: 

Italy vs. Australia

The Italians are the overwhelming favorites. On paper. If Alexei Popyrin would show the same winning form (that made him win the Montreal Masters last summer), then the Australians have a fighting chance. Matt Ebden and Max Purcell, the 2022 Wimbledon men’s doubles champion, have a slight edge over Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori. 

Our prediction: Australia will score an upset (2-1)

Germany vs. Spain

The Germans are the underdogs in this tie. We would love to see them reach their third Davis Cup finals, but Spanish Davis Cup team coach David Ferrer has many options in the singles. 

Our prediction: Spain will win by a mile (2-0)

Finals: 

Australia vs. Spain

Third time’s a charm!

The Aussie men must want this Davis Cup title to win. Badly. It has been a long season, and the outcome might result in one player getting injured (and being sidelined for a few months). We see the Aussies silencing the home crowd. 

Kokkinakis is capable of upsetting Roberto Bautista Agut or Pablo Carreno Busta. Kokkinakis upset Roger Federer in the opening round of the 2018 Miami Masters. And Alcaraz might be off his best form. The winner of four major titles have shown signs of exhaustion on a number of occasions. Nadalcarz are no match to the Ebden-Purcell tandem. 

Our prediction: Australia will win their 29th Davis Cup title (2-1)

Your thoughts?

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